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Laborshed

Estimating the Total Labor Force Potential

The fundamental goal of any Laborshed analysis is to estimate the potential availability of workers and determine how well the surrounding geographical areas are able to provide a stable supply of workers to the central Laborshed node (see Table 1).

Prior to applying the survey results for the Maquoketa Laborshed area, it was necessary to estimate the size of the potential labor force between the ages of 18 and 64 by ZIP code and survey zone. A variety of U.S. Census Bureau, BLS, Iowa Workforce Development, and private vendor publications and data sets are used to estimate the size and demographic details of the potential labor force of the Maquoketa Laborshed area.

A number of adjustments are made to the Maquoketa Laborshed area. The first adjustment is to account for differences in the labor participation rates within each of the zones. These adjusted rates are achieved by dividing the labor force cohort between the ages of 18 and 64 by the population cohort between the ages of 18 and 64 (LFC/PC). The labor force cohort includes both employed and non-employed persons that are looking for work. This ratio is similar to the BLS labor force participation rate (LFPR), except that the LFPR includes the total civilian non-institutionalized population 16 and above. Since most employers are more concerned with the population between the ages of 18 and 64, cohort groups below age 18 and above age 64 are removed.

Employment demographic variables such as employment status, age, education level and miles driven to work are taken into consideration when estimating the availability of workers. Of particular interest is the ordinal variable that rates a person’s desire to change employment on a 1-4 scale (1=very likely to change; 4=very unlikely to change).

Factors are explored at both the micro (individual) level and at the macro (zip code or Laborshed) level. The estimated total potential labor force is developed using a logistic regression with polytomous response model based on the above covariates drawn from survey data that estimates the theoretical probability of persons accepting or changing employment.

Table 1.
Estimated Total Potential Labor Force

Maquoketa Laborshed Area

Maquoketa Laborshed Area

 

Some ZIP codes may not be identified above due to lack of information from the U.S. Census Bureau.